Adaptive and Preparedness Strategies for Political Instability in Coastal Tourism Sector in Kenya: Evidence from Hotels, Tourism Suppliers and Local Communities in Mombasa, Diani, and Malindi

Abstract

Tourism is highly sensitive to political instability, which disrupts visitor flows, weakens business performance, and destabilizes employment systems, particularly in destinations dependent on international arrivals. Coastal Kenya has repeatedly experienced tourism shocks linked to election-related instability, yet empirical evidence on stakeholder coping mechanisms and preparedness strategies remains limited. This study examined strategies for coping with and preparing for political instability among hotels, tourism suppliers, and local communities in these destinations. It was guided by Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), which explains protective responses under perceived threat conditions, and the Tourism Social-Ecological Resilience Theory, which frames tourism systems as interconnected social and ecological networks that adapt to shocks through learning, flexibility, and institutional support. A convergent parallel mixed-methods design was applied. Primary data were collected from 284 respondents drawn from 35 hotel managers, 29 tourism suppliers, and 220 local community participants through questionnaires, interviews, and focus group discussions. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Findings show that stakeholders primarily relied on market-driven and adaptive coping strategies. Marketing and aggressive promotion dominated responses among tourism suppliers (57.9%) and hotels (44.4%), while security enhancement was also widely adopted (suppliers 15.8%; hotels 14.8%). To address revenue decline, stakeholders prioritized local marketing (33.3%), price reductions (22.2%), and operational cost control (14.8%). Employment management strategies included rotational employment (31.2%), multi-tasking (27.9%), temporary layoffs (18.3%), and salary reductions (15.4%). Qualitative data revealed that these measures helped sustain operations but often reduced worker welfare and household incomes. For future preparedness, respondents emphasized peace promotion (33.3% hotels), security improvement (29.6% hotels; 26.3% suppliers; 46.7% community), infrastructure development (20.0% community), and increased tourism funding (15.8% suppliers). Peace awareness campaigns (hotels 40.7%; suppliers 42.1%; community 33.3%) and mixed employment practices (33.3% hotels) emerged as key social cohesion interventions. However, perceptions of future instability remained high, with 33.3% of hotel managers and local community members anticipating renewed political disruption, while 50.0% of suppliers expected tourism decline during elections. The study concludes that tourism stakeholders largely depend on short-term adaptive coping mechanisms, while long-term resilience remains constrained by limited institutional preparedness and persistent political risk perceptions. Strengthening structured crisis management systems, social cohesion programs, and integrated governance frameworks is necessary to enhance tourism resilience in coastal Kenya.